The Republican Party is on the verge of splintering a little more than a year before the 2014 midterms. In many respects, this is due to long overdue corrections; the battle between establishment Republicans and upstarts has been postponed time and time again for the past thirty-four years. The timing is inopportune; the issue over which the Republicans are fighting is critical to the future of the country.
On the Tea Party side, Senator Ted Cruz is apparently giving House Republican insurgents their marching orders. Fresh off of an over 21 hour quasi-filibuster, Ted Cruz has bolstered his credibility with House Republicans by showing them that he can stand and talk for 21 hours. In other words, he’s physically and mentally capable of an actual filibuster in the future.
The issue is one of principle versus practicality: on the one hand, the principles at stake are obvious, and the federal government is pushing private insurance to the brink of obliteration in order to usher in single-payer; on the other hand, the Republicans need to at least look like they are united and have a coherent plan going forward in 2014 to dislodge the Democrats. Make no mistake about it, the Democrats are more unified right now than the Republicans.
In the midst of this, there is Senator Ted Cruz, the upstart freshman senator who clearly didn’t get the memo about seniority in the Republican Party. If he did, he quite obviously didn’t give a damn about the memo’s content. Cruz has managed to stir insurgency in both chambers of Congress, and he’s not merely at war with senior Republicans. By all indications, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are headed for a massive collision, and their collision might not wait until 2016’s presidential election.
Additionally, there are rumblings that Ted Cruz might actually be looking to take the Speaker’s seat from John Boehner in the House. Such a move would be unprecedented, and were it anybody else it would be utterly inconceivable to entertain such a possibility. This is Ted Cruz, however, and he is a man in a hurry. He has no patience for the dictates of seniority, collegiality, or tradition. He bucks convention at every turn.
Among Republican voters, Cruz is the favorite for the 2016 presidential race. He has overtaken Senator Rand Paul, and he has done so with the repeal of Obamacare, which Republican voters favor by an astonishing 64%-20%. Even Republican moderates favor repeal 46%-36%. Among Republicans identifying as very conservative, repeal is favored by 75%-10%. Cruz’s metrics against establishment GOP leaders are even more astonishing. When asked who they trust more, Cruz or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Republican voters favor Cruz 49%-13%. If it’s between Cruz and Speaker Boehner, Cruz wins 51%-20%.
In simple terms, if it were up to Republican voters, Cruz would be the Republican leader in both houses of Congress. That this is true for a senator who hasn’t been in Congress for a full year makes it even more astonishing. Cruz has eclipsed the party leadership and every senior member of the Republican Party in less than a year. Not surprisingly, Cruz’s fellow senators are showing their resentment. Tom Coburn has publicly questioned the wisdom of the defunding effort, and Bob Corker and other recently elected senators are coming out against Cruz.
Nevertheless, Ted Cruz continues his meteoric rise in the estimation of those who count: actual GOP voters. The question is whether or not Cruz can sublimate his appeal with those voters into appeal with moderates. Going forward, if Obamacare fails as predicted, and leads to customer dissatisfaction with pricing and service, Cruz’s credibility will rise. The question then becomes whether or not Cruz can author a legislative alternative to replace Obamacare that can achieve legislative support.
In the meantime, Ted Cruz continues to tear down the old and usher what looks to be a brash new future. The implications for 2014 are unclear, but what is clear is that the Republican establishment and Ted Cruz are headed for a showdown in D.C.